Final week, in Half 1 (discover it right here), we examined whether or not Google’s AI Overviews are literally altering how individuals use Search.
The information revealed that whereas customers go to Google extra steadily with AI Overviews, they:
- Spend much less time per go to.
- Aren’t crafting considerably longer or extra complicated queries.
Now we flip to an much more consequential query for the online ecosystem:
Is Google delivering its promise to “develop site visitors to the ecosystem” via AI Overviews?
This declare has been repeated by Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai in a number of boards:
- “On the whole, we discover it’s each total growing utilization, and after we have a look at it yr on yr, we’ve been in a position to develop site visitors to the ecosystem.”1
- “Individuals are utilizing it to Search in totally new methods … and getting again the very best the online has to supply.”2
For web site house owners, publishers, and content material creators, that is the million-dollar query.
Plus, if AI Overviews really drive extra site visitors to the online, they characterize an evolution of Search.
But when they don’t drive extra site visitors to the online, they doubtlessly characterize a major disruption to the connection between Google and the open internet.
Let’s look at what the information truly exhibits about site visitors patterns earlier than and after the introduction of AI Overviews.
As a reminder, I partnered with Similarweb to research over 5 billion search queries throughout a number of markets. And right here’s what this knowledge set contains:
- Over 5 billion search queries and 20 million web sites.
- Common time on web site, searches per session, and visits per consumer on Google.com – each in complete and evaluating the UK, U.S., and Germany.
- A comparability of key phrases with and with out AI Overviews that analyzes searches per session, common time spent on Google, and zero-click share.
- Web page views and time spent on Google.com for key phrases displaying AI Overviews vs. key phrases with out AI Overviews.
- Common question size for the UK, US, and Germany.
Declare: We Have Been Ready To Develop Site visitors To The Ecosystem
Information from my evaluation exhibits this declare just isn’t right.
In actual fact, my research reveals AIOs increase zero-click share from 72% → 76%.
Customers who depart Google do have interaction extra, as talked about in Half 1, however a bigger share of queries by no means “get again to the online.”
It’s essential to pause right here.
Have a look at what number of key phrases (60% on the lowest level, proven by the black line above) result in zero-click searches, even when Google doesn’t present an AI Overview.
Many key phrases that grew in zero-clicks after AI Overviews formally launched in Might 2024 additionally had zero-clicks earlier than the launch.
However after the rollout, we see a transparent improve in zero-clicks for AIO key phrases and a plateau in November 2024 at 76% (up from 71.4% in April 2024).
The share of zero-clicks additionally grew for non-AIO key phrases, which might be defined by SERP Options like Featured Snippets.
For instance, Semrush exhibits a transparent upward development for the variety of movies that present up for phrases Wikipedia, one of many largest websites on the net, ranks for.
Picture Credit score: Kevin IndigOn account of extra SERP options, the hole in zero-click share between key phrases displaying AIOs vs. not displaying AIOs has closed from 15.4% in Might 2024 to 11.4% in February 2025.
Right here’s one other instance that challenges Pichai and the Google workforce’s claims:
Search queries with out AI Overviews end in twice as many pageviews as these with AI Overviews.
In that sense, AIOs ship much less site visitors to the ecosystem total, and it results in fewer pageviews. This can be a demise blow for publishers who depend on advert impression quantity.
To be honest, one might argue in favor of Pichai’s level right here in that pageviews from AIO key phrases have grown 21.5% because the rollout in Might 2024, in comparison with simply 1.3% development for key phrases with out AI Overviews throughout the identical interval (till November ‘24, after which they drop).
So, you might have a look at that development and say, “Pageviews from AIO queries have grown,” however that omits numerous essential context.
Picture Credit score: Kevin IndigVerdict: These Claims Aren’t Telling The Full Reality – At Finest
In Half 1, I got here to the next conclusion:
After we look at the information intently, a transparent sample emerges: Google’s claims about AI Overviews basically altering how we search are largely overstated.
Sure, customers go to Google extra steadily, however they’re spending much less time per go to and never crafting considerably longer or extra complicated queries. This means AI Overviews are making a “fast reply” habits sample moderately than deeper engagement with search.
And Half 2 of my evaluation confirms that sample.
Sure, queries are creeping longer, and AIO-derived clicks are high-quality.
Nonetheless, zero-click development contradicts the declare that AIO persistently sends extra site visitors “again to the online.”
Picture Credit score: Kevin IndigThe rise in question size is incremental – not a wholesale shift to “totally new” habits – and elevated zero-click decision means many searches cease at Google moderately than reaching “the very best the online has to supply.”
Make certain to subscribe as a result of subsequent week, I’m publishing the first-ever AIO usability research to enrich the quantitative knowledge I’ve revealed over the past 5 months with qualitative insights.
Let me let you know … it will change your mannequin of Search and LLM optimization.
Enhance your abilities with Progress Memo’s weekly professional insights. Subscribe without cost!
1 CNBC Unique: CNBC Transcript: Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai Speaks with CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa on “Closing Bell: Additional time” Immediately
2 Google I/O 2024: An I/O for a brand new technology
Featured Picture: Paulo Bobita/Search Engine Journal
